Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Pump The Brakes On Impeachment Talk

Sometimes doing the right thing isn't the wisest thing.


It might sound strange to say that, but it is true. For example, snitching on a buddy who's creepin around on his woman is the right moral thing to do. However, how wise is it to insert yourself into someone else's relationship? That usually doesn't end up well.


Now, what I am really talking about is a comparing apples to oranges situation but the over arching principle exists.


Since the Mueller Report's public release some Democrats have been clamoring for impeachment proceedings of Donald Trump.


Despite the delusional disingenuous rantings of Trump and his base the Mueller Report painted a pretty ratchet portrait of the President. While the report concluded there was no conspiracy between the Trump campaign and the Russian government in legal terms it certainly presented facts detailing the numerous ways Russia offered help to the Trump campaign. It also laid out how the Trump campaign while not coordinating with Russia for election help also didn't turn it down either.


The most damning aspect of the Mueller Report was the multiply ways Trump either obstructed justice or tried. Before I go further let me say the argument Trump didn't obstruct justice because there was no underlying crime is an idiotic assertion! Moronic, in fact!


But, that is a topic for another blog piece. I am not interested in debating the details of Mueller's findings at this time.


The point here is the impeachment discussion.


Robert Mueller didn't render an opinion whether Trump committed obstruction. Instead, he made it clear it's Congress' duty to determine guilt or innocence on the matter.


Some Democrats in Congress and in the base have decided that impeachment proceedings must occur. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) have been among the most vocal but far from alone in stating Trump's actions are impeachment worthy.


However, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer have essentially said pump the brakes. Their caution seems ostensibly a mere political calculation.


But, I think they're right.


Has Trump done things worthy of impeachment? Of course! Forget obstruction of justice. Trump's emoluments violations, his campaign finance violations and his apparent bank and insurance fraud provide more than enough substance for impeachment.


The man is literally the embodiment of corruption and criminality.


Butttttttttttt, none of that means impeachment is a good idea.


Here's what some of the impeachment stans aren't seemingly grasping.


Impeaching the mutha...errrr...I mean Individual One isn't in and of itself going to remove him from office. It's the equivalent of an indictment.


Look at the House of Representatives, whom would be the ones to vote to impeach, as a grand jury. The House impeaching Trump would only move the case to trial before a jury. The Senate would be the jury.


For Trump to actually be removed from office he would have to be found guilty by a majority of the Senate. But, there's a catch. Conviction only occurs if two-thirds of the Senate agrees.


Currently Republicans hold a 53 to 47 advantage over Democrats. Given all 47 Democrats (including the two Independents)voted to convict, which isn't any type of certainty with Joe Manchin around, 20 Republicans would have to vote for conviction.


Now, seriously, who in their right mind believes there are 20 Republicans who would vote to remove Cheeto Jesus? Hell, you'd be hard pressed to convince me there would be one. Republicans have given no indication over the course of this shitshow presidency they're willing to stand up for what is right.


It's an exercise in futility. What would be the point?


Pelosi and the Democratic leadership seem to believe the best course of action is to hold oversight hearings and lay the evidence out for the American people to decide at the polls in 2020.


I agree.


Again, Trump is so beyond deserving of impeachment. He is corrupt. He is a crook. He is a menace. But, impeaching him with no realistic shot at removing him from office will only accomplish riling up his base and possibly making him sympathetic.


I understand this might seem I'm making a distinction without a difference. I admit it's threading a really fine needle. But, there is a difference between presenting a case for impeachment and actually doing it.


The reality is his base will not care. We have been over this before. These people have no red line! However, making a case to Independents and disenfranchised Left is a different story.


What congressional Democrats should do is oversight. Subpoena records and call people to testify. If there's pushback, place people in contempt and force compliance. They need to hold hearings and present the evidence to the American people. Make this one long episode of Law and Order.


Actually impeaching Trump has too many negative ramifications. Something about the tangible act of impeachment doesn't generally sit well with the American public.


Now, if public sentiment begins favoring impeachment, that is different. If polls stat showing a 70/30 or 80/20 split in favor of impeachment, that changes the dynamics. Such public sentiments would possibly cause Republicans to grow a spine.


But, as things stand right now, impeachment is an empty vanity act because the Senate would never remove him from office. Republicans are scared of the Trump base. Unless that base begins to fracture congressional Republicans will tow the line.


Besides, the ballot box is what will speak the loudest. Many Democrats are blinded by their wet dreams of getting rid of the Orange Menace refusing to understand Trump is a symptom; not the cause.


Having a resounding victory November 3rd, 2020 is what will damage Trumpism. Sending a message about what the majority of this country stands for will be infinitely more fruitful than simply forcing out the orange buffoon, which would very likely cause an even more caustic and spiteful blacklash.


Of course, Trump is deserving of impeachment, but in the grand scheme of things it's not a wise move to pursue.

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